‪NETFLIX 原创纪录片
‪你可以想一下自己在山区开车的场景 You could think of yourself driving in a mountainous area
‪道路盘旋而上 with the road circling up the mountain.
‪超功率运行的发动机运转过快 An overpowered engine driving much, much too fast,
‪你行驶时没有开亮前灯 driving without any headlights.
‪而路旁就是有坠落风险的悬崖 Cliffs that you're at risk of falling over.
‪你当然想打开前灯 You want, of course, to turn on the headlights,
‪这正是科学一直以来尝试做的事 and that is what science tries to do all the time.
‪科学为我们打开前灯‪让我们能够看到所面临的风险 To give us the headlights so we can see what risks we're facing.
‪在对于我们星球运作方式的研究方面 Recent discoveries made by scientists
‪科学家的最新发现 studying the ways in which our planet works
‪对我们所有人来说 ‪无疑是最重要的 are surely of the greatest importance for all of us.
‪他们的见解令人深感忧虑 Their insights are deeply troubling.
‪尽管如此 他们也给了我们希望 Nonetheless, they also give us hope,
‪因为他们向我们展现如何去解决问题 because they show us how we can fix things.
‪其中有一位毕生致力于 One of those who has devoted his life
‪研究这些全球重要问题的人 to studying these globally important problems
‪来自瑞典 comes from Sweden.
‪他是约翰罗克斯特罗姆 Johan Rockström.
‪他和他在世界各地的同事的发现 What he and his colleagues around the world have discovered
‪也许是我们这个时代‪最重要的科学见解 is perhaps the most important scientific insight of our times.
‪约翰给了我们希望 Johan has given us hope.
‪希望能有办法摆脱这场危机 Hope that there is a way out of this crisis.
‪而且一旦你也听到了 And once you too have heard it,
‪你可能永远不会‪再以同样的方式看待世界 you may never look at the world in the same way again.
‪这与地球无关 This is not about the planet.
‪这与我们有关 这关乎我们的未来 This is about us. It is about our future.
‪我们还有机会 We still have a chance.
‪为了人类的未来‪这扇窗还在为我们敞开着 The window is still open for us to have a future for humanity.
‪我想这就是我们如今的魅力所在 That I think is the beauty of where we are today.
‪我们对我们星球运作方式的理解 Our understanding of how our planet works
‪总是在进步 is always advancing.
‪我们现在可以比以往更清晰地看到 We can now see more clearly than ever
‪生命的错综复杂 对我们的生存至关重要 how life's intricate complexity is essential for our own survival.
‪但是生物多样性正在崩塌‪我们的气候也在发生变化 But biodiversity is collapsing, and our climate is changing.
约翰罗克斯特罗姆‪专注于找出保持这个星球稳定的原因 Johan Rockström has focused on what keeps our planet stable.
‪感谢科技进步 我们是第一代人 We're the first generation, thanks to science,
‪被告知我们可能 to be informed that we may be undermining
‪为了支持我们所知的人类发展 the stability and the ability of planet Earth
‪正在破坏地球的稳定与能力 to support human development as we know it.
‪这来自于冰芯数据 This comes from ice core data,
‪我认为这是我们今天最重要的图表 and I think that this is the most important graph we have today.
‪这张图表是个启示 The graph is a revelation.
‪它显示了自现代人类出现以来 It shows global temperature variability
‪过去10万年来的 over the past 100,000 years
‪全球气温变化情况 since the first appearance of modern humans.
‪十年来‪气温在正负10摄氏度之间跳跃 We were jumping between plus-minus ten degrees Celsius in a decade.
‪简单来说 我们过得很艰难 We had, to put it simple, a rough time.
‪最关键的是 温度在一万年前 What's critical is that the temperature stabilized
‪就稳定下来了 just 10,000 years ago.
‪（时期 几千年前）
‪从图中可以看出 这非同寻常 You can just see from the graph that this is a remarkable,
‪更不用说‪间冰期几乎稳定得如奇迹一般 not to say almost miraculously stable, interglacial period.
‪地质学家给这段稳定期 Geologists have given this period of stability
起了一个特殊的名字 its own special name.
‪这就是所谓的全新世 It's called the Holocene.
‪全新世简直就是奇迹 The Holocene is remarkable.
‪这是个暖期 在整个期间 It is a warm period where the planet's global mean temperature
‪地球的全球平均温度 varies between just plus-minus one degree Celsius
‪仅在正负1摄氏度之间变化 during the entire period.
‪正负1 Plus-minus one.
‪…是正负1摄氏度 …is plus-minus one degree Celsius.
‪这就是建立我们所知的‪现代世界的基础 This is what established the modern world as we know it.
‪全新世稳定的温度‪给了我们一个稳定的星球 The Holocene's stable temperatures gave us a stable planet.
‪海平面稳定了下来 Sea levels stabilized.
‪我们第一次 For the first time,
有了可以预测的季节和可靠的天气 we had predictable seasons and reliable weather.
‪这种稳定性是根本 This stability was fundamental.
‪第一次 文明成为了可能 For the first time, civilization was possible,
‪人类没有浪费任何时间‪对其进行了充分利用 and humanity wasted no time in taking advantage.
‪我们在不同的大陆 We domesticated rice, wheat,
‪几乎同时栽培了大米、小麦 teff, maize, sorghum,
‪苔麸、玉米和高梁 on different continents roughly at the same time.
‪然后我们踏上了我们所知的文明之旅 And off we go on the civilizational journey as we know it.
‪这是间冰期 This is the interglacial stage that has enabled us
‪使我们能够发展‪我们所知的现代文明 to develop modern civilizations as we know it.
‪全新世是我们唯一‪可以确定的地球状态 The Holocene is the only state of the planet we know for certain
‪它可以支持我们所知的现代世界 can support the modern world as we know it.
‪自文明诞生以来 Since the dawn of civilization,
‪我们一直依赖于地球的这种稳定状态 we have depended on this stable state of the planet.
‪这个星球有两个永久性的冰盖 A planet with two permanent ice caps,
‪有流动的河流 flowing rivers,
‪有遮蔽的森林 a cloak of forests,
‪有可靠的天气 reliable weather,
‪还有众多生物 and an abundance of life.
‪在整个全新世 Throughout the Holocene,
‪这个稳定的星球‪为我们提供了可以吃的食物 this stable planet has given us food to eat,
‪可以饮用的水和可以呼吸的清新空气 water to drink, and clean air to breathe.
‪但是我们却把全新世抛在了身后 But we have just left the Holocene behind.
‪人类对地球呈指数级增长的压力 The exponential rise in human pressures on planet Earth
‪现在已经到了一个阶段 has now reached a stage
‪我们现在已经创造了自己的地质纪元 where we have now created our own geological epoch.
‪科学家近日宣布 全新世已经结束 Scientists recently declared that the Holocene has ended
‪我们现在正处于人类世 and that we are now in the Anthropocene,
‪这是人类的时代 the age of humans,
‪因为我们现在是地球上变化的 because we now are the primary drivers of change
‪主要驱动力 on planet Earth.
‪我们改造了世界上一半的宜居土地 We have converted half the world's habitable land
‪种植农作物 并饲养家畜 to grow crops and rear livestock.
‪我们移动的沉积物和岩石‪比地球上全部自然过程都要多 We move more sediment and rock than all the Earth's natural processes.
‪半数以上的海洋都在活跃捕捞 More than half of the ocean is actively fished.
‪我们每十个人中有九个‪呼吸着不健康的空气 Nine out of ten of us breathe unhealthy air.
‪而且 在一生中 And, in a single lifetime,
‪我们让地球升温了不止1度 we have warmed the Earth by more than one degree.
‪我要说的是‪也许对人类来说 最可怕的信息 I would say that perhaps the most dire message to humanity
‪是以下几点 is the following.
‪在短短的50年里 So we have, in just 50 years,
‪我们就设法把自己 managed to push ourselves
‪从过去保持了一万年的状态中 ‪推了出去 outside of a state that we've been in for the past 10,000 years.
‪我们是否有破坏‪整个星球稳定的风险？ Are we at risk of destabilizing the whole planet?
‪这种情况实在是令人匪夷所思 It's just a mind-boggling situation to be in.
‪这是我们第一次不得不认真考虑 For the first time, we have to seriously consider
‪破坏整个星球稳定的风险 the risk of destabilizing the entire planet.
‪波茨坦气候影响研究所
‪约翰的抱负一直是看到全局 Johan's ambition has been to see the big picture.
‪利用全球知识网络 To draw from a global network of knowledge,
‪了解是什么让整个星球保持稳定 to learn what keeps the entire planet stable.
‪有哪些系统决定了这个星球的状态？ What are the systems that determine the state of the planet?
‪如果有5个系统‪或者如果曾有30个系统 And if they are five or if they were 30,
‪我们就不会知道什么时候开始 we did not know when we started.
‪我们只是开放性地提出了问题 We just open-ended asked the question,
‪“我们能确定‪调节这个星球状态的系统吗？” "Can we identify the systems that regulate the state of the planet?"
‪那些系统在整个全新世 一直把这个星球‪保持在 Those systems have held the planet in its stable state
稳定状态 throughout the Holocene.
‪随着我们对地球压力的增加 As we increase our pressures on Earth,
‪这些系统会有开始崩塌的危险 there is a danger that those systems will start to break down.
‪我们会突破地球的界限 That we will break through Earth's boundaries,
‪导致我们赖以生存的稳定局面崩塌 causing the stability that we depend on to collapse.
‪我绝对相信 我们想要 I was absolutely convinced that we wanted
‪深入探索定义地球界限的挑战 to dig into this challenge of defining planetary boundaries,
‪我们能否确定一个数量点 and can we identify a quantitative point
‪超过这个范围‪我们就有可能触发非线性变化 beyond which we risk triggering nonlinear changes?
‪那就是你的界限？ And that becomes your boundary.
‪如果科学家能够定义我们星球的界限 If scientists could define our planet's boundaries,
‪他们能不能也给我们路线图 ‪引导我们摆脱目前的危机 could they also give us the road map to guide us out of our current crisis?
‪不仅向我们展示如何避免崩塌 To show us not only how to avoid collapse,
‪还有如何确保我们自己‪在地球上蓬勃发展的未来？ but how to secure our own thriving future on planet Earth?
‪我们大家都知道‪第一个也是最明显的界限 The first and most obvious boundary is well known to us all.
‪目前全球气温 With global temperatures now warmer
‪比文明诞生以来还要高 than they've been since the dawn of civilization,
‪眼下存在一种危险 我们已经越过了‪地球气候的界限 there is a danger that we have already crossed the boundary in Earth's climate.
‪也许最令人震惊的证据 Perhaps the most alarming evidence of this
‪就是我们星球冰层的变化 is in the change of our planet's ice.
‪身为瑞典人 约翰比大多数人‪更能深切地感受到这一点 As a Swede, Johan feels this more keenly than most.
‪身为瑞典儿童‪像所有的瑞典儿童一样 As a kid in Sweden, like all children in Sweden,
‪我们知道 凯布讷山的南峰‪是瑞典的最高峰 we learn that the south top at Kebnekaise is the highest peak in this country.
‪这正是作为瑞典公民 And it's something that is just ingrained
‪一种根深蒂固的认同 in the identity of being a Swedish citizen.
‪因此 这令人黯然神伤 So, of course, it's…
‪你知道 You know, with sadness,
‪人们逐渐意识到‪情况将会有所改变 one comes to realize that that will no longer be the case.
‪凯布讷山的南峰 The south peak of Kebnekaise
‪最近失去了瑞典最高峰的地位 has recently lost its status as the highest peak in Sweden.
‪在过去的50年里 The glacier that makes up its highest point
‪构成其最高点的冰川 has been shrinking roughly at the rate of half a meter a year
‪每年大约以半米的速度缩小 for the last 50 years.
‪我们在凯布讷山这里看到的 What we're seeing here at Kebnekaise
‪本身不会破坏这个星球的稳定 on its own will not destabilize the planet.
‪但是在北极和南极的 But having two caps of a permanent ice
‪两个永久性冰盖 in the Arctic and in Antarctica is
‪是这个星球维持这种状态的先决条件 the very precondition for the planet to stay in this state
‪使我们能够发展我们所知的文明 that has enabled us to develop civilizations as we know it.
‪这就是为什么看到冰川消融 And that's why it's such an enormous concern
‪令人非常担忧的原因 to see glaciers melting,
‪不管是凯布讷山的小冰川 irrespective of whether it's a small glacier at Kebnekaise,
‪还是我们正在谈论的格陵兰岛 or whether we're talking about Greenland,
‪因为它们加在一起 because they all add together
‪有着让这个星球降温的神奇能力 to this fantastic capacity of cooling the planet.
‪这种冷却效应在整个全新世 This cooling effect was fundamental
‪是维持地球温度的根本 in keeping the Earth's temperature stable throughout the Holocene.
‪这个星球的冰层‪刚好把足够的太阳能量 The planet's ice was reflecting just the right amount of the Sun's energy
‪反射回太空 back into space.
‪像我们在这里看到的‪永久性白色表面 A permanent white surface like what we can see around us here
‪将90、95%来自太阳的能量反射回去 is reflecting back 90, 95% of incoming heat from the Sun.
‪当这些冰盖开始消融时 When these ice sheets start melting,
‪它们不仅尺寸缩小 not only do they shrink in size
‪边缘区域也很暗会吸收热量 so the fringe areas are very dark and absorb heat,
‪但是即使只是在冰面上‪得到液体表面的事实 but even just the fact that you get liquid surface on the ice
‪也会使颜色发生如此显著的变化‪这样就会达到这种情况 changes the color so significantly, so you can come to a point
‪冰盖会翻转 从自冷 where the ice sheets tip over from being self-cooling
‪变成自暖 to becoming self-warming,
‪这是地球系统里最具戏剧性的 and that is the most dramatic tipping point
‪临界点 in the Earth's system.
‪临界点是指 A tipping point is a point
‪改变无法逆转的点 beyond which a change becomes irreversible.
‪它就像是停在坡道上的火车 It's like a train that's parked on a slope,
‪开始移动 and it's beginning to move.
‪火车的刹车失灵了 We're losing the brakes on the train,
‪火车在加速 and so the train is accelerating,
‪开得越来越快‪在某一刻 我们失去了控制 getting faster and faster, and at some point, we lose control.
‪我们已经失去了 We are already losing the brakes
‪可以阻止格陵兰岛‪冰盖消融的刹车系统 that could prevent the melting of the Greenland ice cap.
‪我20岁第一次来这里时 When I first came here, aged 20,
‪感觉就像是场梦… it felt like kind of a dream,
‪丹麦和格陵兰岛地质调查局
‪杰森博克斯教授‪
‪…因为我看到了‪只能在教科书上看到的风景 because I was seeing landscapes that I had only kind of seen in textbooks.
‪因为其证据和见解‪杰森是全世界众多 Jason is one of the many scientists around the world
‪为约翰研究提供基础的‪科学家中的一员 whose evidence and insights were fundamental to Johan's research.
‪格陵兰岛上的千年积雪 The millennia snowfall onto Greenland has accumulated,
‪产生了这个冰穹 produced this dome of ice.
‪冰穹有3,2公里里厚‪而且就在大气层里 It's two miles thick and, you know, well up in the atmosphere.
‪那里真的很冷 It's really cold up there.
‪冰穹在消融时 冰盖表面 As it melts, the surface of the ice cap
‪降低到更温暖的空气中 lowers into warmer air,
‪加快了消融速度 speeding up the melt.
‪冰穹消融得越多 The more it melts,
气候就需要变得越冷 才能使冰穹逆转 the cooler the climate would need to become in order to reverse it.
‪但如今的气候‪对格陵兰岛来说已经太热了 But today's climate is already too hot for Greenland.
‪所以在目前的气候下‪格陵兰岛已经超出了它的临界值 So in the current climate, Greenland is already beyond its threshold,
‪它现在每秒有1万立方米的冰块消失 er, where it's now losing 10,000 cubic meters of ice per second.
‪这是平均损失率 That's the average loss rate.
‪现在 损失率只会随着 Now, that loss rate will only continue
‪气候变暖持续下去 as the climate heats up.
‪格陵兰岛无法恢复了吗？ So is Greenland lost?
‪显然是的 Evidently, it is.
‪除非我们能显著冷却地球的气候 Unless we can significantly cool the Earth's climate,
‪否则格陵兰岛冰盖的消融‪将会不可避免地继续下去 the melting of the Greenland ice cap will inevitably continue.
‪这里的戏剧性在于‪临界点的一个特点是 The drama here is that one characteristic of tipping points
‪一旦你按下了开始按钮‪就无法加以阻止 is that once you've pressed the on button, you cannot stop it.
‪它占了上风 一切太迟了‪你又不能说： It takes over. It's too late. It's not like you could say,
‪“糟糕 现在我才意识到‪我不想让格陵兰岛的冰层消融 "Oops. Now I realize I didn't want to melt the Greenland ice sheet.
‪我们退回去吧” Let's… Let's back off."
‪那就太迟了 Then, it's too late.
‪但你越过这些临界点时‪就进入到不可逆转的点 When you cross these tipping points, you can enter a point of no return
‪像我们这种情况 ‪你基本上可以确定这个星球 that you basically commit the planet to an irreversible sliding away
‪从支持我们人类的状态 ‪滑向不可逆转的未来 from a state that, in our case, can support us humans.
‪格陵兰岛冰盖的消融 The melting of Greenland's ice cap
‪将使全世界的海平面上升七米 would raise sea levels around the world by seven meters.
‪想象一下海平面变化的世界 Imagine a world where sea level is not static.
‪随着它的改变Where it's changing.
‪数以百计的沿海城市 ‪现在正受到海平面上升的威胁 Cities, hundreds of coastal cities now are threatened by rising seas.
‪海平面的稳定 Er, that stability in sea level was key
‪是文明发展的关键 to the development of civilization.
‪我们面临的是《疯狂麦克斯》‪那样的未来 It's… It's a… It's a Mad Max future that we're facing.
‪但是格陵兰岛只是‪地球极地冰盖中的一个 But Greenland is just one of Earth's polar ice caps,
‪但跟它南边的冰盖相比要小得多 and it's dwarfed by its southern twin.
‪就在几年前 Not so many years ago,
‪人们还在认为 南极洲是能够迅速恢复的系统 it was thought that Antarctica was the resilient system.
‪因为冰层受气候的影响不算大 This was the ice sheet that was not very much affected by climate change.
‪但是如今 这种情况已经完全改变了 But today, that has changed completely.
‪如今 我们看到南极洲‪消融的块体和冰块 Today we're seeing accelerated loss of mass
‪加快了进入海洋的速度 and loss of ice into the ocean in Antarctica.
‪如果南极洲西部完全消融 West Antarctica would lead to sea-level rise of more than five meters
‪将导致海平面上升超过5米 if it were to melt down completely,
‪而南极洲东部是西部的十倍 and then east Antarctica actually holds the tenfold of that,
‪所以海平面有上升超过50米的可能性 so more than 50 meters worth of sea-level potential.
‪里卡达是约翰的一位同事 Ricarda is one of Johan's colleagues,
‪她研究的是临界点如何相互影响 and she studies how tipping points can interact.
‪这里要说明的重要一点是 The important point to make here is that everything
‪地球系统中的所有事物‪都是相互关联的 in the Earth's system is connected.
‪如果气候系统的一部分 If one part of the climate system
‪越过了临界点 crosses its tipping point,
‪那么系统中的其他部分 then that might make it more likely
‪也很有可能越过其关键临界值 for other parts of the system to also cross their critical threshold,
‪你可以用多米诺骨牌来思考这个问题 so you can think of this in terms of dominoes.
‪如果你翻倒其中一个 If you tip one of them over,
‪那就可能会导致串联反应 then this might lead to a cascading effect.
‪显然 随着全球气候持续变暖 What is clear is that with ongoing global warming,
‪我们正在增加 we're increasing the risk
‪越过地球系统临界点的风险 of crossing tipping points in the Earth's system.
‪当我们越过临界点时‪我们就启动了不可逆转的变化 When we cross tipping points, we unleash irreversible changes
‪这就意味着‪这个星球将从我们最好的朋友 that would mean that the planet will go from our best friend
‪变成抑制并降低压力的状态 to a position where it dampens and reduces the stress,
‪吸取二氧化碳 sucking up carbon dioxide,
‪吸取热量 并吸收冲击 taking up heat, absorbing impacts,
‪同时翻转至能够‪自我强化变暖的那一点 and tipping over to a point where it could self-reinforce warming
‪成为我们的敌人 and become a foe.
‪当然 气候的变暖‪是由温室气体造成的 The climate is, of course, being warmed by greenhouse gases,
‪因此正是因为排放这些气体 so it's in our emissions of these gases
‪让我们发现了全球的临界点 that we find a global tipping point.
‪早在人类出现之前 ‪地球的平均温度 Since long before human beings appeared, the Earth's average temperature
就密切追踪‪大气中二氧化碳的浓度 was closely tracking the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
‪在全新世时期 During the Holocene,
‪这个浓度保持相对稳定 this concentration remained relatively steady,
‪（时期 年份）
‪但是工业革命改变了一切 but that all changed with the Industrial Revolution.
‪1988年 我们向地球大气层 In 1988, we passed 350 parts per million
‪排放了百万分之350的二氧化碳 of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.
‪这是我们越过界限的时刻 This was the moment we crossed the boundary.
‪从那时起 我们就面临着‪触发导致气候 Ever since then, we've been at risk of triggering changes
‪急速变暖变化的风险 that lead to runaway warming.
‪如果大气中二氧化碳的浓度 You go past 350 PPM
‪超过了百万分之350 in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,
‪地球就进入了危险区域 and you enter the danger zone.
‪因此 百万分之350‪是约翰的第一道界限 So 350 parts per million is the first of Johan's boundaries,
‪而我们已经超过了这一界限 and we're already well beyond it.
‪目前 大气中二氧化碳的浓度 Right now, we've reached a point of carbon dioxide concentration
‪大约是百万分之415 in the atmosphere of roughly 415 parts per million.
‪我们开始看到处于 We're starting to see the impacts of being
‪气候界限危险区中间的影响 in the middle of the danger zone in the climate boundary
‪包括旱灾、热浪和 in terms of rising frequency of droughts,
‪洪水的频率增加 and heatwaves, and floods,
‪冰块加速消融 and accelerated melting of ice,
‪冻土加速解冻以及‪森林火灾发生的频率加快 and accelerated thawing of permafrost, and higher frequency of forest fires.
‪上述这些是第二个临界值 Up ahead is a second threshold.
‪二氧化碳的浓度正在‪迅速接近百万分之450 We are rapidly approaching 450 parts per million carbon dioxide.
‪地球界限的危险区域 The planetary boundary danger zone is defined
‪是由科学中的不确定度范围来定义的 by the uncertainty range in science.
‪如今 我们的评定标准‪是科学中的不确定度范围 Today, our assessment is that the uncertainty range in science
‪在百万分之350之间 lies between 350 PPM,
‪这是安全区 which is the boundary
‪与进入危险区域之间的界限 between the safe zone and entering the danger zone,
‪最高为百万分之450 up to 450 PPM,
‪这是离开危险区域‪进入高风险区域的当量 which is when you exit the danger zone and go into a really high-risk zone.
‪考虑到临界点的迹象就在我们周围 If we enter the high-risk zone,
‪如果我们进入高风险区域 irreversible tipping points become highly likely, if not inevitable,
‪如果并非不可避免 and this is a conservative estimate,
‪很有可能出现不可逆转的临界点‪而这只是保守估计 given that the signs of tipping points are all around us now.
‪简单来说 气候的地球界限 In simple terms, the climate planetary boundary
‪相当于升温1,5摄氏度 is equal to 1.5 degrees Celsius warming,
‪它只是提供了所有这些证据 and it just provides all this evidence
‪如果我们允许自己超过1,5摄氏度 ‪我们将承担巨大的风险 that we take a huge risk if we allow ourselves to go beyond 1.5.
‪我们现在在1,1摄氏度‪ 正在迅速向1,5摄氏度迈进 We are at 1.1, we're rapidly moving towards 1.5,
‪我们留在气候的地球界限内的 and our only chance to stay within the planetary boundary on climate
‪唯一机会在于 is that we, you know,
‪我们在未来30年内‪实现无矿物燃料的世界经济 reach a fossil-fuel-free world economy within the next 30 years.
‪虽然全球气温的目标‪可能占据了 While that target for global temperature
所有的头条新闻 may have grabbed all the headlines,
‪约翰知道 这只是大局的一部分 Johan knew that this was only one part of a bigger picture.
‪因为我们地球的稳定‪不单单依赖于气候 For our planet's stability relies on more than just its climate.
‪必须提出更多的研究和证据 More research and evidence had to be brought forward
‪得出我们还有四个生物圈界限的结论 to conclude that we also have four biosphere boundaries.
‪这些是在生生不息的地球上的界限 Boundaries that are in the living Earth.
‪包括土地结构 These include the land configuration.
‪地球上的生物群落是如何构成的？ How… How is the composition of biomes on Earth?
‪三个热带雨林、温带雨林 Er, the three rain forests, the temperate forest,
‪北方森林 the boreal forest,
‪草原 the grasslands,
‪和湿地 the wetlands.
‪其次是生物多样性 Second is biodiversity.
‪水中和陆地上的所有物种 So all the species in water and on land.
‪第三是命脉与水文循环 And then the third one, of course, the bloodstream, the hydrological cycle.
‪淡水
‪最后是注入营养物质… And then, finally, the injection of nutrients
‪营养物质
‪…这些是现存生物圈与氮磷循环 that are fundamental for the functioning of the living biosphere.
‪运作的基础 The nitrogen and phosphorus cycles.
‪第一个生物圈边界‪是在地球上构成的栖息地 The first of the biosphere boundaries,the composition of the habitats on Earth,
‪涉及到我们现在‪如何改造这些自然栖息地 is concerned with how we are now transforming those natural habitats.
‪在这个星球现存的一处最大荒野上 We are fast approaching a major tipping point
‪我们正在迅速接近一个重大的临界点 in one of the planet's largest remaining wildernesses.
‪那就是亚马逊 The Amazon.
‪卡洛斯诺布雷几十年来 Carlos Nobre has been studying
‪一直在研究雨林‪对我们星球稳定性的重要之处 the rain forest's importance to our planet's stability for decades.
‪他是第一个拉响警报的人 He was the first to sound the alarm.
‪卡洛斯诺布雷
‪圣保罗大学高级研究所
我看到亚马逊‪在1971到1972年间并未干扰 I saw the Amazon in 1971-72 undisturbed.
‪我看到了森林 I saw the forest
‪还有河流 and the rivers.
‪我与食人鱼一起在尼格罗河游泳 I would swim in the Rio Negro with the piranhas,
‪我从没出过任何事 And nothing ever happened to me.
‪从那时起 亚马逊的大片土地被开垦 Since that time, large swathes of Amazon have been cleared
‪为畜牧业和大豆种植业提供场地 for livestock and soya farming.
‪卡洛斯发现 这正促使我们 Carlos has discovered that this is pushing us closer
‪在剩下的大部分地区‪触发不可逆转的改变 to triggering irreversible change across much of what remains.
‪1998年 我们开始在热带雨林中 In 1998, we began the largest scientific experiment
‪进行有史以来最大的科学实验 ever conducted in a tropical rain forest.
‪当时在雨林里建了很多座塔 Many towers were built in the rain forest
‪研究森林如何创造自己的气候 to study how it creates its own climate.
‪数据显示 大部分雨林正在枯竭 The data shows large parts of the rain forest are drying out.
‪在亚马逊 旱季最多持续三个月 In the Amazon,the dry season lasts a maximum of three months.
‪但是从20世纪80年代开始 But with global warming
‪随着全球变暖 and also forest degradation, due to human activities,
‪还有人类活动造成的森林退化 in particular, livestock and soya farming,
‪特别是畜牧业和大豆种植 the dry season has become six days longer
‪旱季延长了六天 each decade since the 1980s.
‪随着森林的减少和破坏 As the forest is reduced and fragmented,
‪它的循环用水 its ability to recycle water
‪和在旱季产生雨水的能力减弱了 and generate rain into the dry season is diminished.
‪如果旱季变长超过四个月 If the dry season becomes longer than four months,
‪丛林树木会死去‪取而代之的会是草原 the jungle trees die and are replaced by savanna.
‪这个过程称为稀树草原化 A process called savannization.
‪有迹象表明 亚马逊的‪部分地区已经在发生变化 There are signs that parts of the Amazon are already changing.
‪如果森林砍伐量‪超过森林面积的20％到25％ If deforestation goes above 20 to 25% of the forest,
‪随着全球变暖 with global warming increasing,
‪我们很可能会经历‪不可逆转的稀树草原化过程 we are likely to experience an irreversible process of savannization
‪可能影响整个亚马逊森林的‪50％到60％ that could affect 50 to 60% of the entire Amazon forest.
‪我们已经失去了近20％的亚马逊雨林 We have already lost close to 20% of the Amazon rain forest.
‪我们可能要把亚马逊‪ 从地球的朋友变成地球的敌人 We could be about to tip the Amazon from planetary friend to planetary foe.
‪当丛林变成草原 许多树会死去 As the jungle turns to savanna, many trees die,
‪并将碳排放到大气中 and carbon is released into the atmosphere.
‪卡洛斯曾计算过 亚马逊在未来30年 Carlos has calculated the Amazon could release
‪将排放2000亿吨碳 200 billion tons over the next 30 years.
‪这相当于过去5年里 That's equivalent to all the carbon emitted worldwide
‪全球碳排放总量 for the past five years.
‪我们现在非常接近临界点 We are very, very close to the tipping point.
‪我们是否关心应对气候危机的问题？ Are we concerned about fighting the climate crisis?
‪我们是否关心把碳留在森林里 Are we, er, concerned about keeping the carbon in the forest?
‪还是“我不在乎”？ Or "I don't care"?
‪在这种时候 我们有理由深感忧虑 There is reason to be deeply concerned at this point.
‪我们还在把农业用地‪扩大到自然生态系统 We're still expanding agricultural land into natural ecosystems.
‪我们对于雨林砍伐的速度 We are still cutting down the rain forest
‪仍在危及整个系统 at a pace that puts the whole system at risk.
‪而且不仅仅是雨林 And it's not just the rain forests.
‪各式各样的树木对于维持‪这个星球的稳定性都是极其宝贵的 Trees of every description are invaluable in maintaining planetary stability.
‪以至于世界森林覆盖率只损失25% So much so that a loss of just 25% of the world's forest cover
‪就有可能触发灾难性的临界点 risks triggering catastrophic tipping points.
‪但是我们已经砍伐掉了近40％的森林 But we have already cleared almost 40%.
‪我们已经进入了这个界限的危险区域 We are well into the danger zone for this boundary.
‪砍伐森林的第二个主要后果‪是 A second major consequence of deforestation
丧失自然界的 is a loss of biodiversity.
‪生物多样性 Of nature.
‪生物多样性是生物圈的第二条界限 Biodiversity is the second of the biosphere boundaries,
‪因为它支撑着我们自己‪在地球上蓬勃发展的能力 because it underpins our own ability to thrive on Earth.
‪但是我们没有好好对待它 But we are not treating it well.
‪自然界正在以一定的速度和规模退化 Nature is being degraded at a rate and a scale
‪‪生物多样性和生态系统平台
‪安妮拉里格多丽博士
‪这在人类历史上是史无前例的 that is unprecedented, er, in human history.
‪安妮拉里格多丽是位生态学家 ‪对日益增多的证据感到震惊 Anne Larigauderie is an ecologist alarmed by the growing flood of evidence.
‪在世界各地 ‪自然界都在衰退 Everywhere around the world, nature is in decline.
‪全世界估计共有 One million of species of plants and animals
‪800万种动植物 out of an estimated total of eight million
‪有100万种濒临灭绝 are threatened with extinction.
‪如果我们继续保持这种负面趋势 If we continue with this negative trend,
‪我们可能会走向第六次大灭绝 we might be headed towards a sixth mass extinction.
‪在短短50年间 In just 50 years,
‪人类已经消灭了‪全球68%的野生动物种群 humanity has wiped out 68% of global wildlife populations.
‪显然 我们正处在生物多样性危机中 It's clear that we are in the midst of a biodiversity crisis.
‪失去了所有的生命构造 Losing all of this fabric of life,
‪以及所有的生物多样性‪正威胁着我们自己在地球上的生命 all of this biodiversity, is threatening our own life on Earth.
‪由于目前生物多样性的消极趋势 With current negative trends in biodiversity,
‪我们将无法养活这个星球 we are not going to be able to feed the planet.
‪为此 我们需要正常运行的大自然 For that, you need nature that functions well.
‪对于约翰来说 这个近在眼前的故事 For Johan, it was a story close to home
‪真正触动了他 that really hit him.
‪我打开报纸 看到了一则新闻 I opened the newspaper and read this story about UK scientists coming over to Sweden
‪英国科学家来瑞典偷短毛熊蜂蜂后 and stealing, you know, short-haired bumblebee queens.
‪他们好像是晚上偷偷溜进来的 And it read like they had, you know, sneaked over at night
‪大概抓走了上百只熊蜂蜂后 and basically snatched these hundred bumblebee queens
‪把它们带回了英国 to bring them back into the UK
‪想要拯救被他们毁掉的环境 and to basically save what they had been destroying.
‪在整个欧洲 短毛熊峰 Across Europe, short-haired bumblebees
‪是粮食作物关键的传粉者 are key pollinators for food crops.
‪但到了20世纪90年代‪它们在英国被认定为已灭绝 But by the 1990s,they had been classed as extinct in the UK.
‪在这里 我们有一个国家‪被迫去另一个国家 Here, we have, you know, a country that feels forced to go to another country
‪偷回一些传粉昆虫 and then steal back some of its pollinators
‪希望能有个正常运作的生态系统 to have a functioning ecosystem.
‪这是一个… 对我个人来说 That's a… Then, you know, to me personally,
‪那一刻我真正意识到了 that was a moment of, er, of realization that
‪问题的严重性 this is serious.
‪全世界约有70％的农作物种类 Around 70% of the world's crop species
‪在某种程度上依赖昆虫授粉 rely to some extent on insect pollination.
‪但是集约化单一耕作的扩大 But the expansion of intensive monoculture is leading
‪导致了昆虫数量锐减 to a drastic decline in insects.
‪讽刺的是 我们的全球粮食生产 The irony is that our global production of food is,
‪从本质上来说 in essence,
‪是在消灭我们粮食生产所依赖的东西 wiping out the very thing our food production relies on.
‪这不仅证明了生物多样性研究的 It was not only proof of one of the fundamentals
‪一个基本原理‪那就是 我们需要保护生物多样性 in biodiversity research,which is that biodiversity is not something
‪不是因为我们人类这个物种 we need to protect just because of the beauty
‪需要基于另一个动、植物物种的美‪或者某种道德责任 or some kind of moral responsibility from one species, humans,
‪而保护它们 to another species like flora and fauna.
‪并不是这样 而是因为‪它们是我们社会运转的工具箱 Oh no, it's the toolbox for the functioning of our societies.
‪这是解决谜题的基本要素 It is a fundamental piece of the puzzle
‪使食物生产、清洁空气、清洁水源 to make food production, clean air, clean water,
‪碳固存和营养物循环发挥作用 carbon sequestration, nutrient recycling, to work.
‪科学家们试图计算出 ‪昆虫仅仅通过大量的 Scientists have tried to calculate the benefits that insects provide
‪日常活动 就能带来的好处 simply by going about their daily business in large numbers,
‪每种都提供了有细微差异的不同服务 each kind providing a subtly different service.
‪但是它们的价值大都不可估量‪直到突然之间… But their value is mostly incalculable until suddenly…
‪它们都消失了 they're gone.
‪没有昆虫的星球不是正常运行的星球 A planet without insects is not a functioning planet.
‪当然衰退不只局限在昆虫身上 And, of course, the decline is not just confined to insects.
‪随着农业遍及地球上大部分 Wildlife has been squeezed out
宜居土地 ‪野生动物的生存空间‪被挤压得所剩无几 as our agriculture has expanded across much of Earth's habitable land.
‪如今 地球上所有的鸟类中 ‪只有30%是野生的 Today, of all the birds on Earth, only 30% are wild.
‪这个星球上所有的哺乳动物 And of all the mammals on the planet,
‪按重量来计 目前野生物种仅占4% wild species now make up, by weight, only 4%.
‪生物多样性的界限在哪里？ So where is the boundary for biodiversity?
‪在我们自己的社会崩塌之前 How much more of the natural world can we afford to lose
‪我们还能承受多少自然界的损失？ before our own societies collapse?
‪自然界中 ‪有很多不同的临界点 There are many different tipping points in the natural world,
‪因为生命非常复杂 and it's difficult to translate concretely
‪当涉及到生物多样性时 the planetary boundary when it comes to biodiversity,
‪很难把地球界限具体化 because life is very complicated.
‪因为大自然的复杂性 ‪大自然丧失的 A single boundary for the loss of nature
单一界限 ‪可能很难界定 may be hard to pinpoint because of nature's complexity,
‪但有一点是明确的 but one thing is clear.
‪我们已经越过了这个界限 We've already crossed well beyond it.
‪我们深陷在赤字之中 We are so deep in the red.
‪当地球上的物种消失 We are in such a dangerous point
‪地球上的生态系统遭到破坏‪我们面临着如此危险的时刻 when it comes to losing species on Earth and destroying ecosystems on Earth
‪我们必须尽快阻止 that we have to halt the loss of biodiversity
‪生物多样性的丧失 as quickly as we ever can.
‪现在要把它设为 Now is the time to set as a target
‪2021和2022年的目标 for 2021, 2022,
‪在这十年的早期 I mean really at the early parts of this decade,
‪我们必须把大自然零损失作为目标 that we must aim at a zero loss of nature.
‪相当于1,5摄氏度的‪最大允许升温幅度 The equivalent of 1.5 degrees Celsius maximum allowed warming
‪将从现在开始将为大自然零损失 would be zero loss of nature from now onwards.
‪第三条生物圈界限与行星的命脉有关 The third biosphere boundary relates to the planet's bloodstream,
‪因为淡水是社会赖以生存的 for fresh water is another of the fundamentals
另一个基本要素 that society ‪depends on.
‪你知不知道你和我 Did you know that you and I need roughly
‪每人每天大概需要3000升淡水 ‪来维持生命吗？ something like 3,000 liters of fresh water per person every day for us to stay alive?
‪你会说：“天啊 3000升水？‪那就是3吨水？怎么可能？” And you say, "My God, 3,000 liters? Three tons of water? How can that be?"
‪没错 我们只需要50升水‪用于个人卫生和饮用 Yes, we only need 50 liters for hygiene and drinking.
‪在富裕的世界里‪我们大概还需要100升 We, in the rich world, use roughly another hundred
‪用于洗涤和家庭需要 for washing, our household needs.
‪还需要150升用于工业‪这些大约是300升 And then industry needs another 150, so that's like 300 liters.
‪但是剩下的2500多升用在了食物上 But the rest, the 2,500 or so, is for food.
‪当我们吃食物时‪我们需要淡水来生产 That's the fresh water we need to produce everything that we have on our plates
‪盘子里的一切东西 when we eat our food.
‪淡水对约翰有特殊的意义 Fresh water has a special significance for Johan.
‪这是他攻读博士学位 It was the subject of his PhD
‪以及在非洲半干旱地区‪进行多年研究的课题 and many years of research in the semi-arid regions of Africa.
‪我从日出到日落 ‪走来走去 汗流浃背 I spent from, you know, sunrise to sunset walking around, sweating like crazy,
‪收集数据 collecting data, you know.
‪挖掘土壤剖面 Digging profiles in the soil,
‪采集土壤样本 并进行土壤水分测量 taking soil samples, doing soil moisture measurements.
‪获取风速数据和降雨量数据 Just getting wind speed data and rainfall data.
我测量过很多叶片 I've measured so much leaf area.
‪面积‪你都无法想象 You don't, you won't imagine, you know,
‪科学家以平方毫米为单位‪测量一株植物上所有叶片的尺寸 how careful a scientist has to be in just measuring in square millimeters
‪会有多么小心 the size of all the leaves on a plant.
‪他需要这些细节来回答更大的问题 It was the details he needed to answer a much bigger question.
‪那就是‪我们需要多少水来养活这个世界？ How much water do we need to feed the world?
‪我在读理科硕士时的初步回答是 My tentative answer when I was doing my MSc was,
‪“没错 那里似乎有足够的水” was that, "Yes, there seemed to be enough water."
‪但是 凡事都有两面性 But there's another side to the coin.
‪淡水的使用是否有整体阈值 Is there a global threshold for fresh water use
‪超过这个阈值系统就会开始崩塌？ beyond which the system starts to collapse?
‪我们扫描了世界上所有的流域 We actually scanned off all the river basins in the world
‪然后 ‪定义了任何特定流域 为了维持 and then, you know, defining what's the minimum amount of runoff water
‪‪系统的湿润度 所必备的最低径流水量 any given river basin must have to maintain the wetness in the system
‪这样就会得到蓬勃发展的生态系统 so that you have thriving ecosystems,
‪充足的水源充足以及良好运作的水域 good supply of water, functioning river basins.
‪目前 从每条河中抽取的水量 The volume of water currently being extracted from each river
‪揭示了为什么现在‪很多河流有干涸的危险 reveals why many are now in danger of running dry.
‪在全球范围内‪就我们如今的评估来看 Globally, we're still, as far as our assessment shows today,
‪我们依然处于淡水安全区域 in the safe zone on fresh water,
‪但是我们正迅速向危险区域移动 but we're rapidly moving towards a danger zone.
‪最后一条生物圈界限 The last of the biosphere boundaries
‪涉及到营养物、氮和磷的流动 involves the flow of nutrients, nitrogen, and phosphorus.
‪它们是所有生物的基本组成部分 They are the essential components of all living things,
‪也是肥料的关键成分 the key ingredients in fertilizers.
‪约翰亲眼目睹了‪增加使用量带来的影响 Johan has witnessed firsthand the impacts of their increasing use.
‪他在波罗的海的一个小岛上‪度过了童年的夏天 He spent his childhood summers on an island in the Baltic Sea.
‪我们喜欢钓鱼 We loved fishing.
‪我经常跟我最亲密的朋友安德斯 Most often, I fished with my closest friend here, Anders,
‪还有我弟弟尼克劳斯一起钓鱼‪而且… and my little brother Nicklaus. And…
‪所以我们三个几乎经常 So there was often the three of us.
‪问我父母 Almost being able to tell my mother and dad that,
‪“晚餐你想吃点鱼吗？” "So you want some fish for dinner?"
‪基本上我们回家时都会有收获 and we would come home with a catch, basically.
‪其中一次冒险 One of the adventures was going out
‪是在开阔的波罗的海一、二海里之外 one, two nautical miles out in the open Baltic,
‪我们可以在那里徒手抓鳕鱼 and that's where we could, by hand, fishing cod.
‪我当时最擅长洗鱼 I was, at that time, the best at rinsing the fish,
‪一小时后 我不得不放弃钓鱼 so, after one hour, I had to abandon the fishing,
‪因为我们捕到特别多鳕鱼 because we got so much cod that the only way to bring it home
‪把它们带回家的唯一办法‪是在现场杀鱼 was that we would actually cut up the fish on site.
‪海鸥都快把我们吞没了 So we would have the seagulls just engulfing us,
‪因为有那么多‪内脏和鱼块 because there was so much, er, you know, entrails
我会把它们切下来 and then pieces of fish that I was then cutting off
‪装进船中 just to fit in the boat.
‪作为小孩子 这样做是非常兴奋的 And that was a cause of great, great excitement as a kid to do that.
‪几十年后的今天 情况完全不同了 A few decades later, today, it's a completely different situation,
‪你会发现 没有人去捕鳕鱼 and you see nobody trying to go out to catch cod,
‪因为它们在这儿几乎绝迹了 because, er, it's just literally empty.
‪顺便说一句 当你从上面看时‪它看起来与20世纪70、80年代 It looks exactly the same, by the way, as it did in the 1970s, 1980s
‪完全一样 when you look at it from above,
‪但是如果你从下面看时‪它就完全不同了 but when you look at it from below, it's something completely different.
‪在约翰小时候 波罗的海‪是以鳕鱼等掠食性鱼类为主的 When Johan was a boy, the Baltic was a healthy environment
‪健康环境 dominated by predatory fish like cod.
‪虽然过度捕捞 导致许多鱼类死亡 But while overfishing removed many of the fish,
‪正是从周围农田冲刷下来的肥料 it was fertilizers washed off the surrounding fields
‪使波罗的海陷入了灾难 that tipped the Baltic into disaster.
‪它现在是世界上污染最严重的海洋 It's now the world's most polluted sea.
‪当这个星球上有很多‪跟波罗的海类似的地方时 It is when you have many Baltic Sea equivalents across the planet
‪我们有理由深切关注 that there is reason for deep concern,
‪因为这是个信号 because it's a…
‪表明整个星球正在失去恢复能力 It's a signal that the entire planet is gradually losing its resilience
‪‪而且渐渐变得越来越弱 and gradually becoming weaker and weaker.
‪埃琳娜贝内特是研究肥料影响的专家 Elena Bennett is an expert on the impacts of fertilizers.
‪我们从空气中提取氮气‪通过化学方法 We take nitrogen out of the air and chemically convert it
‪将其转化为能被植物利用的形式 into a form that is able to be used by plants,
‪或者 就磷而言‪我们把它从地下挖出来 or, in the case of phosphorus, we dig it up out of the ground.
‪我们把它开采出来 We mine it.
‪我们开发了化学途径或方法‪对磷进行开采 We developed these chemical pathways or ways to mine phosphorus
‪这些是更有效的做法 that were much, much more efficient,
‪基本上使世界各地 and that basically doubled, tripled,
‪食物生产增加了‪两倍、三倍 甚至四倍 or even quadrupled the production of food around the world.
‪这对养活不断增长的人口‪是非常宝贵的 This was invaluable in feeding a growing population,
‪但我们养成了施用更多肥料的习惯 but we got into the habit of applying far more fertilizer
‪这远远多于作物实际的施用量 than the crops could actually use.
‪未使用的营养物质被冲入河流 The unused nutrients wash into rivers,
‪使得河流也过量施肥 over-fertilizing them too.
‪这个过程称为“富营养化” A process called eutrophication.
‪我们看到的是这些藻华 What we see are these algal blooms.
‪它看起来像是湖顶上的蓝绿色浮渣 Sort of looks like a blue-green scum on top of the lake.
‪它们的气味通常很难闻 They often smell terrible
‪因为我们闻到的是藻类腐烂的味道 because we're smelling the rotting of that algae.
‪它在腐烂时会消耗氧气 As it's decomposing, it uses up oxygen.
‪减少的氧气会改变了 Reduced oxygen changes the chemical composition
‪湖底沉积物的化学成分‪导致它释放出更多的磷 of the sediment on the bottom of the lake, causing it to release more phosphorus.
‪一旦出现了富营养化问题‪ Soon as you have a eutrophication problem,
湖水会这样想 the lake sort of says,
‪“很好 我们会把情况弄得更糟” "Oh good, we're gonna make it worse,"
‪它就创造了一个正反馈循环 and it just creates a positive feedback cycle
‪这会产生越来越多的磷 that creates more and more and more phosphorus
‪进入湖中‪并从根本上使其保持这种状态 going into that lake and essentially keeps it in that state.
‪我们在海洋中 ‪也有同样的富营养化问题 We also have the same issue of eutrophication in oceans,
‪我们从同样的营养物质中 ‪得到所谓的死亡区 where we get what are called dead zones from the same nutrients,
‪在全世界几百个地方 and we see those dead zones now
‪都能看到死亡区 in a few hundred places around the world.
‪海洋中的富营养化可能是导致世界上 Eutrophication in the ocean may have been an important contributor
‪前五次大灭绝事件之一的重要因素 to one of the world's five previous mass extinction events.
‪如今 ‪一些死亡区已经扩大到 Already today, some dead zones have expanded
‪覆盖数万平方公里 to cover tens of thousands of square kilometers.
‪我们对磷和氮的过度使用 Our overuse of phosphorus and nitrogen
‪是我们对生物圈造成的最不为人知 is one of the least known, but most critical impacts
‪但又最关键的影响之一 we're having on the biosphere.
‪我们已经深陷危险区域了 We are already deep into the danger zone.
‪我们已经越过营养物质界限了 We are well across the nutrient boundary.
‪这不是我们会经常想到的事 It's… It's not a thing that we think about very often.
‪我认为我们需要比现在‪更加认真地对待这个边界 I think we need to be taking this boundary much more seriously than we currently are.
‪营养物质、水、我们的森林 ‪生物多样性和气候 Nutrients, water, our forests, biodiversity, and the climate.
‪是我们的星球调节稳定性 ‪以及支撑我们自身生存的 Five big components of our planet that regulate stability
‪五大要素 and underpin our own survival.
‪但是约翰和他的同事‪知道 这还不是全部 But Johan and his colleagues knew that this still wasn't the full picture.
‪他们还没有考虑到正在海洋中上演的 They hadn't yet accounted for a little-known drama
‪一场鲜为人知的戏剧性事件 that's playing out in the oceans.
‪它对我们星球稳定性的影响‪ 可能会超过所有其它影响 Its impact on our planet's stability could outplay all others.
‪当我们把二氧化碳排入大气时 When we emit CO2 into the atmosphere,
‪大约三分之一最终进入了海洋 about a third of that emissions has ended up in the ocean.
‪特里休斯多年来 一直与约翰 Terry Hughes has been a close collaborator with Johan
‪密切合作 over many years.
‪这已经改变了海洋的化学成分 That has changed the chemistry of the ocean.
‪它已经改变了酸碱度 It has changed the pH
‪使其碱性降低或酸性增强 and made it less alkaline, or more acidic.
‪因此被称为 "海洋酸化" Hence the name "ocean acidification."
‪当二氧化碳在水中溶解时 When carbon dioxide dissolves in water,
‪产生了碳酸 it creates carbonic acid.
‪较冷的水域有其脆弱性 The vulnerability is in colder waters.
‪在过去的几十年间 Over the past few decades,
‪世界海洋的酸度增加了26％ the world's ocean has become 26% more acidic,
‪只要大气中的二氧化碳 and, for as long as carbon dioxide concentrations
‪浓度依然很高 in the atmosphere remain high,
‪海洋就会继续酸化 the ocean will continue acidifying.
‪酸与水中被称为碳酸离子的‪化学物质发生反应 The acid reacts with chemicals in the water called carbonate ions,
‪降低它们的浓度 reducing their concentration.
‪它会影响到各种各样的生物体 It affects a broad suite of organisms,
‪特别是那些需要碳酸盐 particularly those that need
‪让骨骼生长的生物体 carbonate to grow their skeletons.
‪像是软体动物、牡蛎和蚌类 Things like mollusks, oysters, mussels.
‪海洋酸化有一段不祥的历史 Ocean acidification has an ominous history.
‪海洋酸化和酸碱度的 Global changes in the acidification,
‪全球性变化实际上‪会导致大规模物种灭绝 the pH of the ocean, can actually cause mass extinctions.
‪我们在地质记录中‪多次看到了这种情况 We've seen that repeatedly in the geological record.
‪因此 当我们在操纵 So as we manipulate
‪这个星球的气候时‪我们实际上是在玩火 the planet's climate, we're literally playing with fire
‪因为越过这些地球界限 in terms of the unforeseen consequences
‪进入未知的领域 ‪会造成不可预见的后果 of moving past these planetary boundaries into uncharted territory.
‪我们仍然处于海洋酸化的安全区域 We are still in the safe zone for ocean acidification,
‪但是我们正在向危险区域推进 but we're pushing towards the danger zone
‪并有可能发生灾难性的大规模灭绝 and potentially a catastrophic mass extinction.
‪对于地球上所有的复杂情况 For all the complexities of Earth,
‪约翰和他的同事发现‪只有九个系统 Johan and his colleagues discovered that there are just nine systems
‪能让我们的星球维持稳定 that keep our planet stable.
‪但是他们还没有确定 ‪这两者之间的界限在哪里 But they've not yet identified where the boundaries lie for two of them.
‪第一个是人为制造的各种污染物 The first one is an assortment of human-made pollutants.
‪我们称之为“ 新实体”‪涵盖的东西应有尽有 We call it "novel entities," and it is everything from nuclear waste
‪核废料到持久性有机污染物 to persistent organic pollutants
‪到重金属含量 to loading of heavy metals
‪再到微塑料 to microplastics.
‪人类创造了10万种新材料 Humans have created 100,000 new materials,
‪其中任何一种都可能‪以灾难性的方式与环境相互影响 any number of which could interact with the environment in catastrophic ways.
‪到目前为止 这个界限还没有被量化 As of yet, this boundary is not quantified.
‪我们只是不知道这些污染物质的长期 We simply don't know the long-term or cumulative impacts
‪或累积性影响 of these polluting substances.
‪但如果不以某种方式加以控制 But most have the potential to cause planet-wide disruption
‪大多数都可能造成全球范围内的破坏 if not controlled in some way.
‪有一种形式的污染物‪已经对全球造成了影响 There's one form of pollutant that is already having a global impact.
‪以致于它有了自己的界限 So much so that it has a boundary of its own.
‪气溶胶基本上是大气中的颗粒物 Aerosols are basically particles in the atmosphere.
‪它们就是所谓的空气污染颗粒物 They are what's called air pollution particulates.
‪气溶胶
‪75％的气溶胶污染来自化石燃料燃烧 75% of the aerosol pollution is from fossil fuel combustion.
‪我们把它们看成是朦胧的天空 We see them as hazy sky,
‪因为它们拦截阳光‪然后像镜子一样把阳光散射开来 because they intercept sunlight and just scatter it like mirrors.
‪它们造成了所谓的"全球变暗现象" And they cause what's called "global dimming."
‪维拉布哈德兰一生都在研究 ‪我们周围和上方的空气 Veerabhadran has spent a lifetime studying the air around and above us.
‪气溶胶对气候影响的另一种方式 The other way aerosols impact climate,
‪因为你在阻断阳光‪这个驱动地球温度的 because you're cutting sunlight, which is the major energy source
‪主要能源‪而这些气溶胶造成了一些降温 for driving the temperature of the planet, these aerosols have caused some cooling.
‪当你听到像我这样的气候科学家说‪气溶胶正在给这个星球降温 When you hear climate scientists like me say that aerosols are cooling the planet
‪并且掩盖了升温‪你可能会想：“这是件好事” and mask the warming, you may think, "That's a good thing."
‪但不幸的是 这不是件好事 But unfortunately, it's not.
‪因为这种掩盖 Because of this masking,
‪我们依然没有看到温室怪兽的全貌 we are still not seeing the full greenhouse beast.
‪气溶胶的冷却效应正在掩盖 This cooling effect from aerosols is masking
‪全球变暖约40%的影响 about 40% of the effects of global warming.
‪而这需要付出高昂的代价 And it comes at a high price.
‪空气污染每年造成700多万人死亡 Air pollution kills over seven million people every year
‪并让我们所有人的平均预期寿命‪减少三年 and takes, on average, three years off the life expectancy of each one of us.
空气污染的界限 Where the boundary for air pollution lies
‪还没有科学判定 has not yet been scientifically determined.
‪仅仅根据这些颗粒物 Just based on the 7.5 million deaths by these particles,
‪造成750万人死亡这个事实 可以说 I would say we have already crossed the boundary
‪我们已经越过了气溶胶的界限 as far as aerosols are concerned.
‪最后 第九条界限是臭氧层 Finally, the ninth boundary is the ozone layer.
‪它的独特之处在于 它是我们朝着 It has the unique distinction of being the only boundary
‪正确方向前进的唯一界限 where we're moving in the right direction.
‪臭氧会拦截有害的紫外线辐射 The ozone intercepts harmful ultraviolet radiation,
‪紫外线辐射会直接影响‪我们的DNA‪ which directly impacts our DNA
并导致诸如皮肤癌的致命疾病 and causes deadly diseases like skin cancer.
‪这就是 That is why,
为什么20世纪80年代 ‪在南极洲发现臭氧层空洞时 when the Antarctic ozone hole was discovered in the 1980s,
‪出现了全球性的恐慌 there was a global panic.
‪臭氧层空洞 The discovery of the ozone hole
‪是由释放到大气中的‪化学污染物造成的 caused by chemical pollutants being released into the atmosphere
‪这一发现说服‪各国逐步淘汰了这些化学品 persuaded nations to phase out these chemicals.
‪把科学警告转化为政治行动 It was quite fantastic how the scientific warnings
‪真的很神奇 translated into political action.
‪这是第一个 也是唯一一个例子 This is the first and only example
‪证明我们可以真正管理好整个星球 that we can actually manage the whole planet.
‪我们实际上可以回到‪地球界限的安全运行空间 We can actually return into a safe operating space
‪因为我们真的已经‪进入了高风险区 for a planetary boundary that we had seriously gone into the high-risk zone,
‪然后我们又回到了安全运行空间 and we returned back into a safe operating space.
‪这的确是神奇的见证 It was indeed fantastic to witness.
‪科学家们发出了警报‪而世界也采取了行动 Scientists raised the alarm, and the world acted.
‪感谢约翰与他的同事 Thanks to Johan and his colleagues,
‪我们现在知道这个星球有九条界限 we now know the planet has nine boundaries
‪以及我们越过它们所面临的风险 and the risks we face by crossing them.
‪加上臭氧层 我们至少现在 Together with the ozone layer, we are, at least for now,
‪处于海洋酸化和淡水的安全区域内 within the safe zone for ocean acidification and fresh water.
‪我们还不知道距离空气污染‪或所有其它污染物 We don't yet know how close we are to the danger zone for air pollution,
‪这些新型实体的危险区域有多远 or for all the other pollutants, the novel entities.
‪但是最令人担心的是 ‪我们已经越过了 But most worryingly, we have already exceeded
‪九条界限中至少四条 at least four of the nine boundaries.
‪它们是气候、森林流失‪营养物质和生物多样性 Climate, forest loss, nutrients, and biodiversity.
‪我们现在正在越过不可逆转的临界点 We are now crossing irreversible tipping points,
‪我们正在冒着危险 接近‪让地球进入无法支持 and we are perilously close to tipping the Earth
‪我们自身文明的状态 into a state that is unable to support our own civilizations.
‪我们今天所看到的 ‪证实了地球界限框架 What we're seeing in the world today verifies the planetary boundary framework.
‪我们可以看到很明显的证据 We can see so clear evidence that,
‪因为我们处在气候的危险区域 because we're in the danger zone on climate,
‪因为我们处在生物多样性丧失的‪深度高危区 because we're in the deep high-risk zone on biodiversity loss,
‪我们开始看到日益增多的旱灾 ‪对雨林的影响 we start seeing increased drought, impacts on the rain forest,
‪澳大利亚与亚马逊的森林火灾 the forest fires in Australia and in the Amazon,
‪加速的冰层消融‪ 以及珊瑚礁系统的崩塌 the accelerated ice melt, the collapse of coral reef systems.
‪对于见证地球这些变化的科学家而言 For the scientists bearing witness to these planetary changes,
‪损失的不仅仅只是数字 the loss is much more than just numbers.
‪特里休斯一生致力于研究珊瑚礁 Terry Hughes has spent a lifetime studying coral reefs.
‪白化的珊瑚病得很厉害 A bleached coral is very, very sick.
‪当珊瑚周围的水温过高时‪ 就会发生白化现象 Corals bleach when the waters around them get too warm,
‪作为全球变暖的结果 ‪这种情况发生的频率和强度 something that's happening with increasing frequency and intensity
与日俱增 as a consequence of global warming.
‪在极端高温下 就像我们最近几十年 In big thermal extremes, like we've been seeing
‪在大规模白化事件中看到的那样 during mass bleaching events in recent decades,
‪它们会很快死去 they can actually die very, very quickly.
‪它们遭到了高温破坏 They cook.
‪白化事件的足迹比最极端的第五类 The footprint of a bleaching event is ten times bigger
‪热带气旋大十倍 than the most extreme Category 5 tropical cyclone.
‪所以就影响的大小和发生的频率而言 So they're off the scale in terms of the size of the impact,
‪它们已经超出了设定范围 and in terms of how frequently they are occurring.
‪特里对世界上最大的珊瑚礁系统 Terry studies the Great Barrier Reef,
‪大堡礁进行了研究 the largest reef system in the world.
‪白化事件曾经是局部性的‪而且很罕见 Bleaching events used to be localized and rare,
‪但是在过去的20年间 but over the past two decades,
‪海洋热浪造成了广泛的白化现象 marine heatwaves have caused widespread bleaching.
‪在过去五年里 ‪发生了五起最大白化事件中的三起 Three of the five biggest bleaching events have occurred in the past five years.
‪我们对两次白化事件之间 We're worried about that shrinking gap
‪不断缩小的间隔深感忧虑 between one bleaching event and the next one.
‪我们已经看到大堡礁‪在2016和2017年 We've already seen back-to-back bleaching events
‪连续两个夏天 第一次发生了 occur for the first time on the Great Barrier Reef
‪连续白化事件 in two consecutive summers in 2016 and 2017.
‪那些间隔对珊瑚的恢复非常重要 Those gaps are critically important if the corals are to recover.
‪珊瑚礁的一半珊瑚已经死亡 Half the reef's corals have already died.
‪特里的工作包括进行航空测量 Terry's work involves conducting aerial surveys
‪记录每次白化事件的程度 to record the extent of each bleaching event.
‪当我们进行航空测量时 ‪我们尽可能飞得很慢 When we do our aerial surveys, we fly as slowly as we can,
‪也尽可能飞得很低‪这样我们就能看到单个珊瑚 as low as we can, so we can see individual corals,
‪我们可以评估其中‪有多少白化或未白化的珊瑚 and we can assess how many of them are bleached white or not.
‪所有珊瑚均已白化 All the coral's bleached.
‪是的 很糟糕 Yeah, that's bad.
‪你可以在几公里外‪看到一片白化的珊瑚礁 You can actually see a bleached reef from kilometers away,
因为它会发光‪ 上面有很多白色的珊瑚 because it virtually glows.There's so much white coral on it.
‪我在非常开阔的高处‪看到几乎所有珊瑚都白化了 So I've got very broad crest, and just about everything's bleached.
‪现在那些测量已经进行了五次 Those surveys have now been done five times,
‪我领导了其中的三次 and I have led three of those.
‪最后三次是在2016年‪2017年和2020年进行的 The last three in 2016, 2017, and 2020.
‪这是我希望自己永远不必做的工作 It's, um…,It's a job I'd hoped I'd never have to do,
‪因为威胁近在眼前 because it's actually, um, very confronting.
‪抱歉 Sorry.
‪我们正在走向‪大堡礁成为 We're heading for a future in which the Great Barrier Reef
‪珊瑚墓场的未来 is a coral graveyard.
‪气候模型专家告诉我们‪这些生物学家 The climate modelers are telling us, the biologists,
‪一切照旧的碳排放 that business-as-usual carbon emissions
‪到本世纪末‪将会导致在每个连续的夏天 will result in back-to-back bleaching events
‪发生连续的白化事件 every consecutive summer by the end of this century.
‪我们已经越过了珊瑚白化的临界点 We've gone past the tipping point for coral bleaching.
‪像我这样的科学家和生态学家 Scientists and ecologists like myself
‪几十年来一直在谈论全球变暖的问题 have been talking for decades now about global warming,
‪令人沮丧的是 我们的意见未被听取 and it has been frustrating, um, that we haven't been listened to.
‪我感到愤怒 I get angry.
‪我并不感到郁闷 我感到愤怒 I don't get depressed. I get angry.
‪确实有理由沮丧 There is a real reason to be frustrated,
‪因为科学证据是明确的 because the science is clear
‪而且在过去的30年间一直在沟通 and has been communicated for the past 30 years,
‪但是我们依然没有迈向正确的方向 and still we're not moving in the right direction.
‪我想要你们感到恐慌 I want you to panic.
‪我想要你们能感受到‪我每天的恐惧 I want you to feel the fear I feel every day.
‪我想要你们采取措施 And then I want you to act.
‪我想要你们像在危机中那样采取措施 I want you to act as you would in a crisis.
‪我想要你们如同房子着了火那样‪采取措施 I want you to act as if the house was on fire.
‪因为就是这样 Because it is.
‪澳大利亚的森林大火‪已经持续了几个月 The bush fires in Australia have raged for months,
‪摧毁了东海岸的大部分地区… destroying so much of the country's east coast--
‪2020年 澳大利亚经历了‪地狱一样的夏天 In 2020, Australia endured a summer from hell.
‪我们现在唯一的出路就是 And our only way out is now
‪倒下的树木与火焰构成的险恶之境 a treacherous gauntlet of fallen trees and flames.
‪在破纪录的温度和‪数月严重旱灾的刺激下 Fueled by record-breaking temperatures and months of severe drought,
‪3亿亩的土地被焚毁 50 million acres of lands were incinerated.
‪人们担心这会成为新常态 People fear this will become the new normal.
‪但是科学显示不存在常态 But the science says there will be no normal.
‪丹妮艾拉泰谢拉研究辉凤头鹦鹉 Daniella Teixeira studies glossy black cockatoos,
‪这是澳大利亚最脆弱的一种鸟类 one of Australia's most vulnerable birds.
‪辉凤头鹦鹉让你真正接近它们 Glossy black cockatoos let you get really close to them.
‪它们会知道你是谁‪ 而且会去你经常去的地方 They will learn who you are, and, in places where you visit regularly,
‪我想 它们实际上知道你是谁 they actually, I think, get to know who you are,
‪所以你可以上前去找它们 and so you can actually go up to them,
坐在它们觅食的树下‪ sit underneath the tree where they're feeding,
‪去认识它们中的每一位 and get to know the individual birds.
‪当这样做安全时 As soon as it was safe to do so,
‪丹妮艾拉回到了‪她在南澳大利亚袋鼠岛上的 Daniella returned to one of her main study sites
‪一个主要研究点 on Kangaroo Island off South Australia.
‪现在是二月 是凤头鹦鹉的筑巢期 It's February. Nesting season for the cockatoos.
‪根本就没有任何野生动物的踪迹 There's no sign of any wildlife at all.
‪这里什么都没有了 There's nothing left here.
‪看起来就像是 It just looks like
‪经历了大屠杀 complete carnage.
‪就好像眼前并非我认识的地方 It's almost like I'm not looking at the spot that I know.
‪因为这里已经满目疮痍 Like it's almost like this can't be the same spot,
‪感觉不可能是同一个地方 because it's so starkly different.
‪我在过去的四年中 Yeah, I've spent the last four years
‪一直在这个地方工作 这是关于… working in this very location, so this is…
这种情况 This is about, um…
‪已经艰难到极致了 ‪这里真的是… Yeah, this is about as hard as it gets. This spot was really, um…
‪本来每天晚上都很热闹 Like there was a big commotion every evening.
‪这时我们本该有雏鸟了 We would have had young chicks by this point.
‪这真是令人心碎 This is… This is heartbreaking.
‪天啊 Jesus.
‪我很了解 I know this nest
‪这个巢穴 pretty well.
‪看到它变成这样真的像是噩梦 It's absolutely horrible to see it like this.
‪唯一剩下的就只是 And all that's left is…
‪扔在地上被烧毁的铁圈 Is the iron collar just burnt on the ground.
‪铁圈 Like, the iron collar is…
‪是我们放在它们筑巢的树上‪用来保护它们的 Is what we put on the nest trees to save them.
‪为了阻止负鼠 To stop the possums
‪攻击雏鸟 from…From predating on the chicks.
‪看看我周围这些铁圈 And just to see all around me these iron collars just
‪它们就这样散落在地上 open on the ground.
‪这些铁圈还不足以拯救它们 You know, they weren't enough to save them.
‪毫无疑问 这是一场生态灾难 This is an ecological catastrophe. There's no doubt about it.
‪2020年的森林大火 The 2020 bushfires
是澳大利亚历史上‪最严重的一次 were the most devastating in Australia's history.
‪长期以来 气候科学家一直在讨论 Climate scientists have been talking about these events
‪这些事件… for a long time,
‪丹妮艾拉泰谢拉博士‪
‪昆士兰大学
‪…我们原本以为这可能会发生 and we were expecting that this might happen,
‪但我认为 没有人会想到‪它会发生得如此快 but I don't think anybody expected it to be so soon
‪或者说如此严重 or so severe.
‪科学家估计 ‪这场大火造成30亿只动物‪死亡或流离失所 Scientists estimate that the fires killed or displaced three billion animals.
‪其中包括143万只哺乳动物 1.43 million mammals,
‪24,6亿条爬行动物 2.46 billion reptiles,
‪1,8亿只鸟 180 million birds,
‪还有5100万只青蛙 and 51 million frogs.
‪这些数字如此庞大 These figures are so enormous,
‪也如此重要 so consequential…
‪我不知道该如何理解它们 I don't know how to make sense of them.
‪这不是我们作为环保主义者‪应该面对的问题 That's not what we should be dealing with as conservationists.
‪我想这是个警钟 I think this is a wake-up call.
‪这些黑色的夏日之火真的向我们展示 These black summer fires really showed us that it's now,
‪现在它正影响着我们 it's affecting us today,
‪而且会造成持久的后果 and this is gonna have long-lasting consequences.
‪它又能去哪里？ Like, where can he go?
‪森林大火和珊瑚白化 是由于‪我们越过了气候界限造成的 Wildfires and coral bleaching are caused by us overstepping the climate boundary.
‪但是正是对大自然的破坏‪ 才是我们这个不稳定的星球 But it is the destruction of nature that lies behind what has been by far
‪迄今为止最深远的影响 the most far-reaching impact of our destabilizing planet.
‪2019冠状病毒病大流行 The COVID-19 pandemic.
‪影响了你我的生活 It affected your life as it affected mine.
‪2019冠状病毒病‪是我们对于这个星球无法应对的影响 COVID-19 was a planetary impact we were ill-equipped to deal with.
‪它令卫生服务不堪重负 It overwhelmed health services
‪并使全球经济陷入瘫痪 and brought the global economy to its knees.
‪（欢迎来到卡纳比街）
‪虽然让很多人感到惊讶 Though it surprised many,
‪但是世界卫生组织‪已经预先警告它即将到来 the World Health Organization had forewarned that it was coming.
‪我认为这只是时间问题 I think it was a question of time.
‪玛丽亚内拉博士
‪‪世界卫生组织
‪我们在破坏大自然‪ 我们在破坏我们的生态系统 Er, we were destroying nature. We were destroying our ecosystems.
‪我们一直在进行‪极具侵略性的农业活动 We have been doing very aggressive agricultural practices.
‪我们进行了一场不可思议的‪毁灭性森林砍伐 We were doing an incredible, very aggressive deforestation.
‪再加上我们生活在污染严重 If you add to that the fact that we live in very polluted cities
‪人口密度很高的城市 with a very high population density,
‪我认为所有这些元素 I think all of those elements were kind of contributing to create
‪为任何新病毒的传播‪都创造了完美的场景 the perfect scenario for any new virus to spread.
‪当大自然的恢复力被削弱时 Zoonotic diseases emerge and spread into the human population
‪人畜共患的疾病就会出现‪并且在人群中传播 when nature's resilience is weakened.
‪导致大流行病的是不健康的大自然 It's not healthy nature that causes pandemics.
‪在疾病的传播方面 In terms of transmission of the diseases,
‪这只是在特定情况下对某些物种而言 it's only with certain species under certain circumstances
‪而且我们是以一种极具侵略性的方式‪入侵了它们的环境 and when we invade their environment in a very aggressive way.
‪人类健康、动物健康和环境健康 So, for the human health, animal health, and environmental health,
‪这三者紧密相关 the three are so much linked.
‪接触大自然是好事 Exposure to nature is good,
‪前提是我们不去破坏 provided we do not destroy nature
‪我们也不破坏生态系统 ‪这样其它物种才能生存 and we not destroy the ecosystems where other species are able to live.
‪我觉得‪新冠病毒 COVID-19, I feel, has made us understand
‪第一次让我们理解了 for the first time that,
‪“老天 这个星球上‪其他某个地方出了问题 "Oh my God, something that goes wrong somewhere else on the planet
‪会突然影响世界整体经济 can suddenly hit the whole world economy
‪还会立刻改变我的生活” and can change my life, like, immediately."
‪新冠毒病的出现 The appearance of COVID-19
‪是一个明确的警告 ‪显示我们的星球一切都很糟糕 was a clear warning that all is not well with our planet.
‪但是它也给了我们一个‪在新的方向重建的机会 But it's also given us an opportunity to rebuild in a new direction.
‪现在约翰与他的同事们打开了前灯 Now that Johan and his colleagues have turned on the headlights,
‪我们能够清晰地看到那些界限 we can clearly see the boundaries.
‪我们可以看到回到安全空间的路径 We can see the path back to a safe space,
‪通往更具韧性的未来 to a more resilient future.
‪这是可以实现的 It is achievable.
‪这不再是一个在这里做经济增长 It's not a question anymore of doing economic growth here
‪然后再在这里做一些‪减少环境影响的问题了 and then do some environmental impact reduction over here.
‪现在 这是围绕可持续性 Oh no, now it's a question of framing the entire growth model
‪制定整体增长模式的问题 around sustainability,
‪让这个星球来引导我们要做的一切 and have the planet guide everything we do.
‪当务之急是将碳排放减少到零 An immediate priority is to reduce carbon emissions to zero
‪并把全球温度稳定在尽可能低的水平 and stabilize global temperature as low as we possibly can.
‪那扇窗还在为我们敞开着‪ 让我们能够避免让气温超过2度 The window is still open for us to be able to avoid passing two degrees.
‪甚至开到让我们把气温控制在1,5度 It's even open to come to 1.5.
‪但是这扇窗真的只是… But the window is really just…
‪勉强打开 It's… It's barely open.
‪自从工业革命开始以来 Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution,
‪我们已经排放了2,4万亿吨二氧化碳 we have emitted 2,400 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
‪想要把温度控制在1,5摄氏度以下 To stay below 1.5 degrees,
‪我们必须再排放‪少于3000亿吨二氧化碳 we must emit less than 300 billion tons more.
‪如果我们每年的排放量是400亿吨 If we continue to emit 40 billion tons each year,
‪我们将在七年内耗尽预算 our budget will run out within seven years.
‪当然 我们不可能在一夜之间 Of course, we cannot shut down
‪关闭世界上所有的能源设施 all energy utilities in the world overnight,
‪所以唯一有秩序的方法是 so the only orderly way to do this
‪现在要改变全球的排放曲线‪因为这是所有科学的研究证明 is to bend the global curve of emissions now,because that's what all science shows.
‪现在是我们改变全球曲线的最后机会 Now is the last chance we have to bend the global curve.
‪我们能够实现的最快速的 What is the most rapid pace of emission reduction
‪减排速度是多少？ that we can accomplish?
‪没有研究表明 我们可以比‪每年百分之六、七的速度更快 Well, there's no study that suggests that we can go faster than 6, 7% per year,
‪因为如果每年百分之六、七的话‪那就是在十年内减少一半 because 6, 7% per year, that is cutting by half in a decade.
‪每十年将减少一半排放量 Cutting our emissions in half every decade
‪是指数级的变化速度 is an exponential rate of change.
‪任何人都可以采用这种速度 Anyone can adopt this pace.
‪我和你可以单独行动 I mean, you and I can do it as individuals.
‪我们可以说：‪“从现在开始 我和我的家人 We can say, "Okay, from now on, myself and my family
‪将尝试每十年减少一半排放量“ will try to cut emissions by half every decade,"
‪这意味着 你在这一代30年间 which would mean that you would be fossil fuel-free
‪不使用化石燃料 in one generation, in 30 years' time.
‪公司可以做到 或者国家可以做到 And a company can do it, or a country can do it,
‪或者世界可以 也必须做到 or the world can/must do it.
‪当然 逐步淘汰化石燃料 Phasing out fossil fuels will, of course,
‪将开始我们回到地球界限范围内 begin our journey back towards the safe space
‪安全空间的旅程 within the climate boundary.
‪这将大幅减少空气污染 And it will also substantially reduce air pollution
‪还能减缓海洋酸化 and also slow down ocean acidification
‪以及降低对生物多样性的压力 as well as reduce pressure on biodiversity.
‪但是零污染还是不够 But zero emissions are not enough.
‪我们还必须减少‪已经使地球过热的碳 We must also draw down the carbon that's already overheating the planet,
‪有个非常有效的方法可以做到这点 and there's one very effective way to do this.
‪那就是多多种树 Plant more trees.
‪在全球范围内种植数十亿棵树 A global effort to plant billions of trees
‪可能是解决气候危机‪最具成本效益和可实现的 could be one of the most cost-effective and achievable solutions
‪解决方案之一 to the climate crisis.
‪而种更多的树 对于抵消‪我们继续排放的碳至关重要 And growing more trees is vital to offset the carbon we continue to emit
‪因为我们正努力以最快的速度‪实现零排放 as we strive to reach zero emissions as fast as we can.
‪当然 碳捕捉 Of course, capturing carbon
‪只是树木提供的好处之一 is only one of the benefits that trees provide.
‪谢赫姆博与约翰合作了很多年 Cheikh Mbow has collaborated with Johan for many years.
‪他是树木的拥护者 He's an advocate for trees.
‪树木能防止水土流失 Trees prevent soil erosion.
‪没有树木 雨水就会减少 Without trees, there will be less rain.
‪如果我们在田地里种树 If we plant trees in the fields,
‪会增加田地的肥沃度‪ 产量也会增加 the fertility of the fields and, therefore, production will increase.
‪我们想让树木回到 We want to bring the tree back to its place
‪持续发展的中心位置 at the center of sustainable development.
‪我们的工作是确保‪在所有树木能够生长的地方 Our job is to make sure that wherever a tree can grow,
‪都种上树 we plant one.
‪植树和恢复我们的自然世界 Planting trees and restoring our natural world
‪当然会对我们星球的生物多样性‪产生极大的好处 will, of course, have huge benefits for our planet's biodiversity,
‪它也将有助于稳定我们的气候和淡水 but it will also help to stabilize our climate, our fresh water,
‪为我们的粮食生产和大自然 and have enormous benefits for our food production
‪免费提供的所有其他服务‪ 提供巨大的好处 and all the other services that nature provides for free.
‪试想一下 自人类诞生以来 Just imagine, for the first time since the dawn of humanity,
‪我们第一次早上在一个拥有 we could wake up one morning
‪比我们睡觉时更多野生动物的‪星球上醒来 on a planet with more wildlife than there was when we went to sleep.
‪还有一个转变‪几乎简单得令人难以置信 There's another transformation that is almost unbelievably simple,
‪但是它是维持在‪我们地球界限内的关键 but it's key to staying within our planet's boundaries.
‪你或我都可以采用 It can be adopted by you or me.
‪事实上 任何人都可以‪自由选择吃什么 In fact, by anyone with the freedom to choose what food they eat.
‪现在 令人振奋的是‪更加灵活的饮食习惯 Now, the exciting thing is the diet that is more flexitarian,
‪少吃红肉 多吃植物性蛋白 less red meat, more plant-based protein,
‪多吃水果和坚果 少吃淀粉类食物 more fruit and nuts, less starchy foods,
‪如果你采取这种饮食方式 if you take that diet
‪假设所有人都吃健康食物 and assume that all people would eat healthy food,
‪我们就可以回到安全的运作空间 we could actually come back within a safe operating space,
‪不仅仅体现在气候方面‪也在生物多样性方面 not only on climate, but also on biodiversity,
‪还在土地、水、营养物质和磷方面 on land, on water, on nitrogen and phosphorus.
‪相当令人激动的是 吃健康食物 Quite exciting that eating healthy food
‪可能是为拯救这个星球‪做出贡献唯一最重要的方式 might be the single most important way of contributing to save the planet.
‪还有一个至关重要的转变 There's one more transformation that is vital.
‪它会把我们带回‪在我们所有的地球界限 It would bring us back towards the safe zone
‪范围内的安全区 within all our planet's boundaries.
‪想象一个没有浪费 Imagine a world without waste,
‪没有任何东西可以丢弃的世界 with nothing to throw away.
‪我们的浪费是设计出来的 Our waste is created by design.
‪当我们制造产品时 When we make products,
‪我们很少建立回收原材料的手段 we rarely build in the means to recover the raw materials.
‪如果我们把线性系统变成循环系统 If we turn that linear system into a circular one,
‪设计能够回收 designing products so that the raw materials
‪原材料的产品 can all be recovered,
‪我们对资源的利用就可能是无限的 our use of resources could be infinite.
‪因此越来越多的证据显示 So more and more evidence shows that circular economies
‪如果我们有机会为世界上的所有公民 are fundamental if we are to stand a chance
‪提供良好的生活 ‪循环经济是根本 of providing good lives for all citizens in the world.
‪消除浪费将使我们更接近气候 Eliminating waste would bring us closer to the safe zone for climate,
‪生物多样性、特别是营养物质 ‪新实体和空气污染的安全区 biodiversity, and especially nutrients, novel entities, and air pollution.
‪地球界限给我们提供了一条‪清晰的前路 The planetary boundaries have given us a clear path ahead.
‪还有比如选择可再生能源 Simple things, like choosing renewable energy,
‪吃健康食物、植树造林 eating healthy food, planting trees,
‪拒绝浪费这些简单的事 saying no to waste.
‪这些加在一起可以改变‪我们在地球上的未来 Together, these could transform our future on Earth.
‪其中的神奇之处在于 And the magic in this is that these transformations
‪这些转变也将改善‪我们所有人现在的生活 would also improve all our lives right now.
‪即便你根本不在乎这个星球 Even if you don't care at all about the planet
‪也不太关心世界上是否存在公平 and even if you don't care too much about equity in the world,
‪而是带着私心‪ 只关注自己和自己的家庭 but rather are selfish, just focusing on yourself
‪还有自己的生活 and your family and your own life,
‪我认为对于应对日常生活的人来说 which I think is a very respectful position to have
‪这是非常值得尊重的立场 as a human being struggling with everyday life,
‪你还是会想回到安全运行空间 still you would want to come back to a safe operating space.
‪每个人都会立即得益于‪拥有洁净的空气 Everyone would benefit immediately of having clean air,
‪给予更多健康和更长的预期寿命 giving more healthy and longer life expectancies.
‪你的孩子会更健康 Your children would be healthier.
‪回到地球界限 Coming back within planetary boundaries
‪也意味着你更有可能生活在 also means you are more likely to live in,
‪有稳定市场和稳定工作的社会里 in societies with, you know, stable markets and stable jobs,
‪这样就减少了你所生活地方的冲突‪和不稳定的风险 which then reduces risks of conflict and instability where you're living.
‪总的说来 So, all in all,
‪你想在一个安全空间里‪ you want to be in a safe space,
而不是一个一切都在不断变化的‪危险区里 rather than being in a danger zone where everything is just in flux.
‪从我们如今掌握的证据来看‪我们在2020年 What we do between 2020 and 2030,
‪至2030年之间应该做些什么‪我的结论是 from the evidence we have today, my conclusion is,
‪这将是决定性的十年‪关乎着人类在地球上的未来 it will be the decisive decade for humanity's future on Earth.
‪未来并不确定 The future's not determined.
‪未来掌握在我们手中 The future is in our hands.
‪未来几个世纪会发生什么 What happens over the next centuries
‪将取决于我们‪在这十年里如何谨慎行事 will be determined of how we play our cards this decade.
‪这是个伟大的时代 It's a remarkable time to be alive,
‪但也承载着要决然采取行动的‪巨大责任 but it also carries great responsibility to act decisively.
‪我们不能再浪费时间了 We have no time to lose.
‪如果明早收到一份报告 ‪内容是一颗小行星 What would we do if we had had a report tomorrow morning
‪正在前往地球的途中‪ 我们该怎么办？ saying that an asteroid is on its way to Earth?
‪我相信 我们会把所有事都放到一旁 Well, I'm sure that we would just put everything else aside
‪然后专心解决这个问题 and just focus then on solving the problem.
‪并且不惜一切代价 Cost whatever cost it takes.
‪现在从科学的角度 可以清楚地看出 It is now clear from the science
‪我们所面临的地球危机 ‪需要同样的团结一致的对策 that the planetary crisis we are facing requires the same united response.
‪我想说 如果是这样 I would say that we do not have
‪我们在世界上就没有环境问题了 environmental problems in the world anymore.
‪破坏这个星球的稳定… Destabilizing the planet…
‪破坏地球稳定的风险‪对全世界所有的科学家而言 The risk of destabilizing the planet is a question of security and stability
‪是安全和稳定的问题 for all societies in the world.
‪因此 这是需要由‪联合国安理会解决的问题 Therefore, it is a question for the Security Council.
‪我认为 我们应该把地球界限‪放到世界上 I think one should put the planetary boundaries right at the center
‪最具战略意义的最高管理层的‪中心位置 of the most strategic top governance level we have in the world,
‪也就是联合国安理会 which is the United Nations Security Council.
‪现在这样的全球应对措施 ‪比以往任何时候都更有可能实现 Such a global response is now within reach as never before.
‪现在有一些更大的事情正在发生 There's something bigger happening right now,
‪那就是我们人类作为一个物种 which is that one species, we humans,
‪是这个星球上的主导力量 are such a dominant force on the planet
‪在过去40亿年的时间里 in a way that we haven't seen across the eons
‪我们从未见过这样的支配方式 over the past four billion years.
‪地球母亲正在接受 Mother Earth is under continuous diagnosis
‪持续诊断和持续观察 and continuous observation.
‪目前 科学界和观察界的 The digitalization and the hyper-connectivity
‪数字化和超级连接 in the world of science and in the world of observation
‪意味着我们已经‪用知识覆盖了整个星球 now means we've covered the whole planet with knowledge.
‪如果我们现在进入 What if we're now entering
‪一个全新 且独特的地质时代 a new, unique geological epoch
‪这不仅是由地球物理来定义 that is not only geophysically defined,
‪是由我们有一个植入这个星球的 but also defined by the fact that we have
‪新意识这一事实来定义‪会怎么样呢？ a new consciousness embedded inside the planet?
‪感谢像约翰罗克斯特罗姆‪这样的科学家们的工作 Thanks to the work of scientists like Johan Rockström,
‪我们现在有能力成为地球的意识‪即它的大脑 we now have the capacity to act as Earth's conscience, its brain.
‪以一个统一的目标思考和行动 Thinking and acting with one unified purpose
‪确保我们的地球‪永远保持健康和恢复能力 to ensure that our planet forever remains healthy and resilient.
‪成为我们的完美家园 The perfect home.